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工作岗位将被人工智能取代,如何应对?

来源:   作者:    发布时间: 2019-08-14 10:15   

工作岗位将被人工智能取代,如何应对?

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Automation is increasingly making its way into the workplace, raising concerns among employees about the ways technology will change their jobs—or eliminate them entirely. A June 2019 report by Oxford Economics predicts that 8.5% of the world’s manufacturing positions alone—some 20 million jobs—will be displaced by robots by 2030.

But that’s the wrong way to think about automation and jobs, says Tom Mitchell, professor and interim dean of Pittsburgh-based Carnegie Mellon University’s School of Computer Science. Instead, you should look at the tasks involved in your job and evaluate how easily those tasks can be automated.

“Some people have a single task job, like toll booth [operators],” he says. "Those people are in trouble because their job is going to be automated.” That’s bad news for them, of course, but what does it mean for you?

Tasks that are at risk

Some tasks aren’t easy to evaluate. A 2013 paper, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation?” found that roughly 47% of jobs were at high risk of being automated with advances in artificial intelligence.

Carl Benedikt Frey, Ph.D., co-author of that paper and author of The Technology Trap: Capital, Labor, and Power in the Age of Automation says predictions around automation’s impact have become very polarized: Either you believe that the robots are coming for many jobs—leaving many with no employment—or you believe it’s going to change the nature of work.

“But that also means that lots of people are probably going to lose their jobs because their skillsets are becoming redundant even as the nature of work changes,” he adds.

This isn’t some futuristic hypothetical. Michael Chui, Ph.D., a partner at McKinsey Global Institute , says roughly half of the tasks people perform at work could theoretically be done by technology that exists today.

And it’s not just low-income workers whose jobs will change. Chui and his team estimate that roughly six out of 10 jobs are made up of 30% or more tasks that can be automated. CEOs, financial advisors, insurance agents, and others all fall into this category.

Regardless of their title, those whose jobs will be transformed by technology care little about the semantics of automation. Even if technology won’t leave them entirely unemployed, they still need to keep abreast of how their jobs will change—and when.

Predicting the rate of change

While it’s difficult to accurately pinpoint a specific window of when automation will encroach workers’ jobs, there are some good indicators of what’s coming, as well as some obstacles that can slow down the process.

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